论文标题

SEQ2SEQ替代流行模型,以促进贝叶斯推断

Seq2Seq Surrogates of Epidemic Models to Facilitate Bayesian Inference

论文作者

Charles, Giovanni, Wolock, Timothy M., Winskill, Peter, Ghani, Azra, Bhatt, Samir, Flaxman, Seth

论文摘要

流行病模型是理解传染病的强大工具。但是,随着它们的大小和复杂性的增加,它们可以迅速在计算上棘手。建模方法的最新进展表明,替代模型可用于模拟具有高维参数空间的复杂流行模型。我们表明,深层序列到序列(SEQ2SEQ)模型可以用作具有基于序列模型参数的复杂流行病模型的准确替代物,从而有效地复制了季节性和长期传输动力学。一旦受过培训,我们的代理人可以预测场景比原始模型快几千倍,从而使其非常适合策略探索。我们证明,用学习的模拟器代替传统的流行模型促进了稳健的贝叶斯推论。

Epidemic models are powerful tools in understanding infectious disease. However, as they increase in size and complexity, they can quickly become computationally intractable. Recent progress in modelling methodology has shown that surrogate models can be used to emulate complex epidemic models with a high-dimensional parameter space. We show that deep sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models can serve as accurate surrogates for complex epidemic models with sequence based model parameters, effectively replicating seasonal and long-term transmission dynamics. Once trained, our surrogate can predict scenarios a several thousand times faster than the original model, making them ideal for policy exploration. We demonstrate that replacing a traditional epidemic model with a learned simulator facilitates robust Bayesian inference.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源