论文标题

战略环境中歧义的影响:实验

The effect of ambiguity in strategic environments: an experiment

论文作者

Brañas-Garza, Pablo, Cabrales, Antonio, Espinosa, María Paz, Jorrat, Diego

论文摘要

我们在实验中研究了一款成功,其中成功需要一个小组成员的足够总贡献。成功的机会和成功所需的全部努力存在着严重的不确定性。具有最大歧义性偏好的理论模型可以预测,歧义下的贡献要高于风险。但是,在西班牙人口的大量代表性样本中(1,500名参与者),我们发现贡献的歧义含量为零。与参与者的个人特征的主要重要互动是风险态度,并增加了贡献。这表明,关注歧义问题(例如气候变化)的决策者不必过度担心歧义。

We experimentally study a game in which success requires a sufficient total contribution by members of a group. There are significant uncertainties surrounding the chance and the total effort required for success. A theoretical model with max-min preferences towards ambiguity predicts higher contributions under ambiguity than under risk. However, in a large representative sample of the Spanish population (1,500 participants) we find that the ATE of ambiguity on contributions is zero. The main significant interaction with the personal characteristics of the participants is with risk attitudes, and it increases contributions. This suggests that policymakers concerned with ambiguous problems (like climate change) do not need to worry excessively about ambiguity.

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