论文标题
回溯反事实
Backtracking Counterfactuals
论文作者
论文摘要
反事实推理 - 设想假设的情况,或者可能的世界,某些情况与(f)实际发生的情况不同(F)(逆时针) - 在人类认知中无处不在。通常,反事实改变的情况被视为“小奇迹”,在当地违反了自然法则,同时共享相同的初始条件。在Pearl的结构因果模型(SCM)框架中,这是通过修改因果定律的干预措施在数学上进行严格的,而外源变量的值则共享。然而,近年来,这种纯粹的干预主义者对反事实的说法越来越受到哲学家和心理学家的审查。取而代之的是,他们建议对反事实的回溯说明,根据该法律在反事实世界中保持不变的情况。相反,与事实世界的差异被“回溯”到改变的初始条件(外源变量)。在目前的工作中,我们在SCM框架内探索和形式化了这种反事实推理的替代方式。尽管有足够的证据表明人类回溯,但据我们所知,目前的工作构成了回溯性反事实的第一个一般说明和算法。我们在相关文献的背景下讨论我们的回溯语义,并与可解释的人工智能(XAI)的最新发展联系起来。
Counterfactual reasoning -- envisioning hypothetical scenarios, or possible worlds, where some circumstances are different from what (f)actually occurred (counter-to-fact) -- is ubiquitous in human cognition. Conventionally, counterfactually-altered circumstances have been treated as "small miracles" that locally violate the laws of nature while sharing the same initial conditions. In Pearl's structural causal model (SCM) framework this is made mathematically rigorous via interventions that modify the causal laws while the values of exogenous variables are shared. In recent years, however, this purely interventionist account of counterfactuals has increasingly come under scrutiny from both philosophers and psychologists. Instead, they suggest a backtracking account of counterfactuals, according to which the causal laws remain unchanged in the counterfactual world; differences to the factual world are instead "backtracked" to altered initial conditions (exogenous variables). In the present work, we explore and formalise this alternative mode of counterfactual reasoning within the SCM framework. Despite ample evidence that humans backtrack, the present work constitutes, to the best of our knowledge, the first general account and algorithmisation of backtracking counterfactuals. We discuss our backtracking semantics in the context of related literature and draw connections to recent developments in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI).