论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Attractors and bifurcation diagrams in complex climate models
论文作者
论文摘要
气候是一个复杂的非平衡动力学系统，在太阳辐射和耗散机制的连续输入下朝着稳态放松。稳态不一定是独一无二的。描述不同强迫下可能稳态的有用工具是分叉图，它揭示了多稳定性的区域，临界点的位置以及每个稳定状态的稳定性范围。但是，在具有动态深海，互动冰盖或碳循环的气候模型中，其构造非常耗时，在那里放松时间大于千年。使用MITGCM的耦合设置，我们测试具有互补优势的两种技术。第一个是基于在强迫中引入随机波动的引入，并允许探索相位空间的很大一部分。第二个重建稳定的分支，在找到临界点的位置方面更为精确。
The climate is a complex non-equilibrium dynamical system that relaxes toward a steady state under the continuous input of solar radiation and dissipative mechanisms. The steady state is not necessarily unique. A useful tool to describe the possible steady states under different forcing is the bifurcation diagram, that reveals the regions of multi-stability, the position of tipping points, and the range of stability of each steady state. However, its construction is highly time consuming in climate models with a dynamical deep ocean, interactive ice sheets or carbon cycle, where the relaxation time becomes larger than thousand years. Using a coupled setup of MITgcm, we test two techniques with complementary advantages. The first is based on the introduction of random fluctuations in the forcing and permits to explore a wide part of phase space. The second reconstructs the stable branches and is more precise in finding the position of tipping points.
