论文标题
建模具有中间复杂性气候模型的气溶胶和温室气体强迫对南亚和东亚季风的影响
Modelling the effect of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing on the South and East Asian monsoons with an intermediate complexity climate model
论文作者
论文摘要
南亚和东亚的夏季季风是全球重要的气象特征，创造了季节性的降水模式。季风的稳定性对于广泛的生态系统以及世界人口中很大一部分的生计至关重要。使用中间复杂性气候模型Plasim进行仿真，以评估季风对气溶胶和温室气体浓度不断变化的未来反应。气溶胶载荷包括对流层中期变暖和表面冷却，该冷却量适用于印度，东南亚和中国，并同时独立。气溶胶载荷增加的主要作用是施加强迫附近夏季降水的减少，尽管区域反应差异很大。降水的减少仅部分归因于沉淀水的减少，而是由于大气层分层的变化而源于降水效率的降低。当同时在所有区域增加气溶胶载荷时，东中国的降水受到最大的影响，随着辐射强迫的增加超过60 W/m^2，其降水状态的过渡非常明显。当我们向西移动时，反应并不那么突然，印度南部的降水受到最小影响。印度南部的这种较低的敏感性归因于中国东部的气溶胶强迫。另外，对降水的影响与强迫大约是线性的。加倍二氧化碳水平的影响是增加区域的降水量并削弱循环。当同时施加二氧化碳和气溶胶强迫时，二氧化碳强迫部分抵消与气溶胶反应相关的沉淀的表面冷却和减少。
The South and East Asian summer monsoons are globally significant meteorological features, creating a strongly seasonal pattern of precipitation. The stability of the monsoon is of extreme importance for a vast range of ecosystems and for the livelihoods of a large share of the world's population. Simulations are performed with an intermediate complexity climate model, PLASIM, to assess the future response of the monsoons to changing concentrations of aerosols and greenhouse gases. The aerosol loading consists of a mid-tropospheric warming and a surface cooling, which is applied to India, Southeast Asia and East China, both concurrently and independently. The primary effect of increased aerosol loading is a decrease in summer precipitation in the vicinity of the applied forcing, although the regional response varies significantly. The decrease in precipitation is only partially ascribable to a decrease in the precipitable water, and instead derives from a reduction of the precipitation efficiency, due to changes in the stratification of the atmosphere. When the aerosol loading is added in all regions simultaneously, precipitation in East China is most strongly affected, with a quite distinct transition to a low precipitation regime as the radiative forcing increases beyond 60 W/m^2. The response is less abrupt as we move westward, with precipitation in South India being least affected. This lower sensitivity in South India is attributed to aerosol forcing over East China. Additionally, the effect on precipitation is approximately linear with the forcing. The impact of doubling carbon dioxide levels is to increase precipitation over the regions and weaken the circulation. When the carbon dioxide and aerosol forcings are applied at the same time, the carbon dioxide forcing partially offsets the surface cooling and reduction in precipitation associated with the aerosol response.
